Riding profile
Mississauga—Lakeshore
The question
Mississauga—Lakeshore: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
OLP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 81%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.8
- P(close race)
- 99%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMississauga—Lakeshore | 46.9% | 45.4% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.3% +14.6 | 41.4% +4.0 | 19.5% −14.9 | 4.0% −1.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Mississauga—Lakeshore, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 47% vote share, against 45% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Rudy Cuzzetto
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUDY CUZZETTO Elected | PC | 20,586 | 47.5 | — |
| ELIZABETH MENDES | OLP | 18,915 | 43.7 | — |
| SPENCER YANG KI | NDP | 1,974 | 4.6 | — |
| JULIA BUDAHAZY | GP | 1,041 | 2.4 | — |
| RENATA CYNARSKA | OTH | 549 | 1.3 | — |
| AYOUB BUMBIA | IND | 123 | 0.3 | — |
| OLEKSII AVDEIEV | OTH | 113 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029