Riding profile

Mississauga—Lakeshore

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Mississauga—Lakeshore: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Mississauga—Lakeshore, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 48% vote share, against 44% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Rudy Cuzzetto

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

OLP

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
3.5
P(close race)
84%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OLP 47.9%
  • PC 44.5%
  • NDP 5.3%
  • GP 1.8%
  • OTH 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

OLP PC NDP GP
HereMississauga—Lakeshore 47.9%44.5%5.3%1.8%
Provincial averageOntario 33.4% +14.6 40.2% +4.2 20.3% −15.0 3.9% −2.2

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
3.9 pts
Turnout
46.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.4 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
RUDY CUZZETTO Elected PC 20,586 47.5
ELIZABETH MENDES OLP 18,915 43.7
SPENCER YANG KI NDP 1,974 4.6
JULIA BUDAHAZY GP 1,041 2.4
RENATA CYNARSKA OTH 549 1.3
AYOUB BUMBIA IND 123 0.3
OLEKSII AVDEIEV OTH 113 0.3
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029