Riding profile
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
The question
Etobicoke—Lakeshore: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Editorial read
Etobicoke—Lakeshore, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 55% vote share, against 35% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lee Fairclough
Sits with OLP
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEtobicoke—Lakeshore | 54.8% | 35.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +21.4 | 40.2% −5.3 | 20.3% −12.2 | 3.9% −2.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEE FAIRCLOUGH Elected | OLP | 25,195 | 48.5 | — |
| CHRISTINE HOGARTH | PC | 21,050 | 40.5 | — |
| ROZHEN ASRANI | NDP | 3,640 | 7.0 | — |
| SEAN MCCLOCKLIN | GP | 1,218 | 2.4 | — |
| TONY SISKOS | OTH | 452 | 0.9 | — |
| LARISA BERSON | OTH | 204 | 0.4 | — |
| VITAS NAUDZIUNAS | OTH | 165 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029