Riding profile
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
The question
Etobicoke—Lakeshore: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEtobicoke—Lakeshore | 53.3% | 36.5% | 7.5% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.3% +21.1 | 41.4% −4.9 | 19.5% −12.1 | 4.0% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Etobicoke—Lakeshore, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 53% vote share, against 36% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lee Fairclough
Sits with OLP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEE FAIRCLOUGH Elected | OLP | 25,195 | 48.5 | — |
| CHRISTINE HOGARTH | PC | 21,050 | 40.5 | — |
| ROZHEN ASRANI | NDP | 3,640 | 7.0 | — |
| SEAN MCCLOCKLIN | GP | 1,218 | 2.4 | — |
| TONY SISKOS | OTH | 452 | 0.9 | — |
| LARISA BERSON | OTH | 204 | 0.4 | — |
| VITAS NAUDZIUNAS | OTH | 165 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029