Riding profile
York South—Weston
The question
York South—Weston: will PC lose this seat to OLP?
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.2
- P(close race)
- 4%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereYork South—Weston | 39.4% | 31.2% | 26.0% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.3% +7.2 | 41.4% −10.2 | 19.5% +6.5 | 4.0% −1.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
York South—Weston, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 39% vote share, against 31% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mohamed Firin
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOHAMED FIRIN Elected | PC | 11,142 | 35.2 | — |
| DANIEL DI GIORGIO | OLP | 10,940 | 34.6 | — |
| FAISAL HASSAN | NDP | 8,101 | 25.6 | — |
| LILIAN BARRERA | GP | 844 | 2.7 | — |
| VICTOR EHIKWE | OTH | 396 | 1.3 | — |
| K. ANN THOMAS | IND | 213 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029