Riding profile

York Centre

Provincial riding — ON · Urban · on tor

The question

York Centre: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Editorial read

York Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 42% for the Ontario Liberals, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Hon. Michael S. Kerzner

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.3
P(close race)
21%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 48.5%
  • OLP 42.1%
  • NDP 6.7%
  • GP 1.6%
  • OTH 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP GP
HereYork Centre 48.5%42.1%6.7%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +8.2 33.4% +8.8 20.3% −13.6 3.9% −2.3

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
18.4 pts
Turnout
39.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.1 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
MICHAEL KERZNER Elected PC 16,416 54.1 —
SAM NESTICO OLP 10,823 35.6 —
NATALIE VAN HALTEREN NDP 1,700 5.6 —
COURTNEY MARTIN GP 658 2.2 —
JOHNNY BLYTHE OTH 309 1.0 —
LIONEL POIZNER OTH 212 0.7 —
JEFFREY ANISMAN OTH 140 0.5 —
PARVIZ ISGANDAROV OTH 111 0.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029