Riding profile
York Centre
The question
York Centre: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereYork Centre | 50.0% | 40.5% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +8.5 | 32.3% +8.2 | 19.5% −13.5 | 4.0% −0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
York Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 40% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Michael S. Kerzner
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICHAEL KERZNER Elected | PC | 16,416 | 54.1 | — |
| SAM NESTICO | OLP | 10,823 | 35.6 | — |
| NATALIE VAN HALTEREN | NDP | 1,700 | 5.6 | — |
| COURTNEY MARTIN | GP | 658 | 2.2 | — |
| JOHNNY BLYTHE | OTH | 309 | 1.0 | — |
| LIONEL POIZNER | OTH | 212 | 0.7 | — |
| JEFFREY ANISMAN | OTH | 140 | 0.5 | — |
| PARVIZ ISGANDAROV | OTH | 111 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029