Riding profile
Willowdale
The question
Willowdale: will PC lose this seat to OLP?
Editorial read
Willowdale, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 51% vote share, against 41% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Stan Cho
Sits with PC
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWillowdale | 50.6% | 40.6% | 6.5% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +17.3 | 40.2% +0.4 | 20.3% −13.8 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAN CHO Elected | PC | 14,476 | 46.3 | — |
| PAUL SAGUIL | OLP | 13,871 | 44.4 | — |
| BORIS IVANOV | NDP | 1,705 | 5.5 | — |
| SHAROLYN VETTESE | GP | 778 | 2.5 | — |
| LILYA EKLISHAEVA | IND | 222 | 0.7 | — |
| PIT GOYAL | OTH | 221 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029