Riding profile
Willowdale
The question
Willowdale: will PC lose this seat to OLP?
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.0
- P(close race)
- 15%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWillowdale | 49.2% | 42.2% | 5.9% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.3% +16.9 | 41.4% +0.8 | 19.5% −13.6 | 4.0% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Willowdale, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 49% vote share, against 42% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Stan Cho
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAN CHO Elected | PC | 14,476 | 46.3 | — |
| PAUL SAGUIL | OLP | 13,871 | 44.4 | — |
| BORIS IVANOV | NDP | 1,705 | 5.5 | — |
| SHAROLYN VETTESE | GP | 778 | 2.5 | — |
| LILYA EKLISHAEVA | IND | 222 | 0.7 | — |
| PIT GOYAL | OTH | 221 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029