Riding profile

Don Valley North

Provincial riding — ON · Urban · on tor

The question

Don Valley North: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?

Current forecast

OLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OLP 48.6%
  • PC 33.5%
  • OTH 11.4%
  • NDP 5.6%
  • GP 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

OLP PC OTH NDP
HereDon Valley North 48.6%33.5%11.4%5.6%
Provincial averageOntario 32.3% +16.3 41.4% −7.9 4.0% +7.5 19.5% −14.0

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Don Valley North, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 49% vote share, against 34% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jonathan Tsao

Sits with OLP

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
OLP
Margin
6.2 pts
Turnout
38.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.9 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
JONATHAN TSAO Elected OLP 13,375 43.8 —
SUE LIU PC 11,484 37.6 —
VINCENT KE IND 3,005 9.8 —
EBRAHIM ASTARAKI NDP 1,562 5.1 —
ANDREW ARMSTRONG GP 784 2.6 —
ANNIE NOLAN OTH 346 1.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029