Riding profile
Don Valley North
The question
Don Valley North: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Editorial read
Don Valley North, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 50% vote share, against 32% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jonathan Tsao
Sits with OLP
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | OTH | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDon Valley North | 50.3% | 32.1% | 9.4% | 6.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +16.9 | 40.2% −8.1 | 2.2% +7.2 | 20.3% −14.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JONATHAN TSAO Elected | OLP | 13,375 | 43.8 | — |
| SUE LIU | PC | 11,484 | 37.6 | — |
| VINCENT KE | IND | 3,005 | 9.8 | — |
| EBRAHIM ASTARAKI | NDP | 1,562 | 5.1 | — |
| ANDREW ARMSTRONG | GP | 784 | 2.6 | — |
| ANNIE NOLAN | OTH | 346 | 1.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029