Riding profile
Scarborough—Agincourt
The question
Scarborough—Agincourt: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Scarborough—Agincourt, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 48% vote share, against 44% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Aris Babikian
Sits with PC
Current forecast
OLP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.5
- P(close race)
- 60%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereScarborough—Agincourt | 48.3% | 43.7% | 6.1% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +14.9 | 40.2% +3.5 | 20.3% −14.2 | 3.9% −2.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIS BABIKIAN Elected | PC | 13,468 | 49.4 | — |
| PETER YUEN | OLP | 11,430 | 41.9 | — |
| FRANCESCA POLICARPIO | NDP | 1,368 | 5.0 | — |
| STEPHANIE LEBLANC | GP | 556 | 2.0 | — |
| JOHAN YOGARETNAM | OTH | 249 | 0.9 | — |
| DONAHUE MORGAN | OTH | 200 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029