Riding profile
Scarborough—Agincourt
The question
Scarborough—Agincourt: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
OLP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 78%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.9
- P(close race)
- 98%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereScarborough—Agincourt | 46.7% | 45.3% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.3% +14.4 | 41.4% +3.8 | 19.5% −14.1 | 4.0% −1.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Scarborough—Agincourt, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 47% vote share, against 45% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Aris Babikian
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIS BABIKIAN Elected | PC | 13,468 | 49.4 | — |
| PETER YUEN | OLP | 11,430 | 41.9 | — |
| FRANCESCA POLICARPIO | NDP | 1,368 | 5.0 | — |
| STEPHANIE LEBLANC | GP | 556 | 2.0 | — |
| JOHAN YOGARETNAM | OTH | 249 | 0.9 | — |
| DONAHUE MORGAN | OTH | 200 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029