Riding profile
Scarborough Southwest
The question
Scarborough Southwest: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereScarborough Southwest | 43.1% | 27.8% | 26.6% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 19.5% +23.6 | 32.3% −4.5 | 41.4% −14.9 | 2.8% −1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Scarborough Southwest, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 43% vote share, against 28% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOLY BEGUM Elected | NDP | 14,557 | 42.9 | — |
| ADDIE DARAMOLA | PC | 10,400 | 30.6 | — |
| QADIRA JACKSON | OLP | 7,786 | 22.9 | — |
| MARK BEKKERING | GP | 1,194 | 3.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029