Riding profile
Scarborough Southwest
The question
Scarborough Southwest: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Scarborough Southwest, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 43% vote share, against 29% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereScarborough Southwest | 43.1% | 29.1% | 24.9% | 2.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +22.8 | 33.4% −4.2 | 40.2% −15.4 | 3.9% −1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOLY BEGUM Elected | NDP | 14,557 | 42.9 | — |
| ADDIE DARAMOLA | PC | 10,400 | 30.6 | — |
| QADIRA JACKSON | OLP | 7,786 | 22.9 | — |
| MARK BEKKERING | GP | 1,194 | 3.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029