Riding profile

Scarborough Centre

Provincial riding — ON · Urban · on tor

The question

Scarborough Centre: will PC lose this seat to OLP?

Current forecast

OLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.2
P(close race)
12%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OLP 47.1%
  • PC 40.0%
  • NDP 9.1%
  • OTH 2.4%
  • GP 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

OLP PC NDP OTH
HereScarborough Centre 47.1%40.0%9.1%2.4%
Provincial averageOntario 32.3% +14.9 41.4% −1.4 19.5% −10.4 4.0% −1.5

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Scarborough Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 47% vote share, against 40% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

David Smith

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
1.7 pts
Turnout
38.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.4 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
DAVID SMITH Elected PC 13,363 44.0 —
MAZHAR SHAFIQ OLP 12,839 42.3 —
SONALI CHAKRABORTI NDP 2,628 8.7 —
DEAN BOULDING GP 918 3.0 —
GUS PROKOS OTH 379 1.3 —
HASEEB QURESHI OTH 211 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029