Riding profile

Scarborough Centre

Provincial riding — ON · Urban · on tor

The question

Scarborough Centre: will PC lose this seat to OLP?

Editorial read

Scarborough Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 49% vote share, against 38% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

David Smith

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

OLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OLP 48.7%
  • PC 38.5%
  • NDP 9.7%
  • GP 2.5%
  • OTH 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

OLP PC NDP GP
HereScarborough Centre 48.7%38.5%9.7%2.5%
Provincial averageOntario 33.4% +15.4 40.2% −1.7 20.3% −10.6 3.9% −1.5

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
1.7 pts
Turnout
38.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.5 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
DAVID SMITH Elected PC 13,363 44.0 —
MAZHAR SHAFIQ OLP 12,839 42.3 —
SONALI CHAKRABORTI NDP 2,628 8.7 —
DEAN BOULDING GP 918 3.0 —
GUS PROKOS OTH 379 1.3 —
HASEEB QURESHI OTH 211 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
on_2029