Riding profile

Scarborough North

Provincial riding — ON · Urban · on tor

The question

Scarborough North: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.3
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 48.7%
  • OLP 39.5%
  • NDP 10.8%
  • OTH 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereScarborough North 48.7%39.5%10.8%0.7%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +7.3 32.3% +7.2 19.5% −8.8 4.0% −3.2

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Scarborough North, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 39% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Raymond Sung Joon Cho

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
18.2 pts
Turnout
37.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.0 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
RAYMOND CHO Elected PC 13,031 53.0 —
ANITA ANANDARAJAN OLP 8,548 34.8 —
THADSHA NAVANEETHAN NDP 2,554 10.4 —
ZDRAVKO GUNJEVIC GP 465 1.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029