Riding profile
Scarborough—Guildwood
The question
Scarborough—Guildwood: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Editorial read
Scarborough—Guildwood, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 57% vote share, against 32% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Andrea Hazell
Sits with OLP
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 25.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereScarborough—Guildwood | 57.4% | 32.3% | 7.7% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +24.0 | 40.2% −8.0 | 20.3% −12.5 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANDREA HAZELL Elected | OLP | 13,813 | 51.0 | — |
| JUDE ALOYSIUS | PC | 10,224 | 37.8 | — |
| CHRISTIAN KEAY | NDP | 1,811 | 6.7 | — |
| TARA MCMAHON | GP | 661 | 2.4 | — |
| ANTHONY INTERNICOLA | OTH | 298 | 1.1 | — |
| KEVIN CLARKE | IND | 169 | 0.6 | — |
| KINGSLEY CATO | IND | 98 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029