Riding profile
Beaches—East York
The question
Beaches—East York: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 32.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | NDP | PC | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBeaches—East York | 56.0% | 23.3% | 17.4% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.3% +23.7 | 19.5% +3.8 | 41.4% −24.0 | 4.0% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Beaches—East York, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 56% vote share, against 23% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mary-Margaret McMahon
Sits with OLP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARY-MARGARET MCMAHON Elected | OLP | 21,545 | 51.2 | — |
| KATE DUPUIS | NDP | 9,660 | 22.9 | — |
| ANNA MICHAELIDIS | PC | 9,001 | 21.4 | — |
| JACK PENNINGS | GP | 1,298 | 3.1 | — |
| THOMAS GREGORY | OTH | 246 | 0.6 | — |
| PAUL STARK | OTH | 125 | 0.3 | — |
| DRAGAN CIMESA | IND | 122 | 0.3 | — |
| BAHMAN YAZDANFAR | OTH | 107 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029