Riding profile

Mississauga—Streetsville

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Mississauga—Streetsville: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

OLP

Toss-up

Probability
69%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OLP 46.4%
  • PC 45.6%
  • NDP 5.2%
  • OTH 2.0%
  • GP 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

OLP PC NDP OTH
HereMississauga—Streetsville 46.4%45.6%5.2%2.0%
Provincial averageOntario 32.3% +14.1 41.4% +4.2 19.5% −14.4 4.0% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mississauga—Streetsville, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 46% vote share, against 46% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Hon. Nina Tangri

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
4.5 pts
Turnout
44.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.1 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
NINA TANGRI Elected PC 19,118 47.7
JILL PROMOLI OLP 17,297 43.2
SHOAIB KHAWAR NDP 2,012 5.0
CHRIS HILL GP 1,012 2.5
DARRYL BROTHERS OTH 630 1.6
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029