Riding profile

Brampton West

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Brampton West: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 54.4%
  • OLP 35.8%
  • NDP 6.0%
  • OTH 2.9%
  • GP 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereBrampton West 54.4%35.8%6.0%2.9%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +13.0 32.3% +3.5 19.5% −13.5 4.0% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Brampton West, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 36% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Amarjot Sandhu

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
24.1 pts
Turnout
34.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
AMARJOT SANDHU Elected PC 19,028 56.6 —
ANDREW KANIA OLP 10,933 32.5 —
SAMUEL SARJEANT NDP 1,981 5.9 —
ETHAN RUSSELL GP 877 2.6 —
DAVID PARDY OTH 554 1.6 —
PUSHPEK SIDHU IND 260 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029