Riding profile
Mississauga Centre
The question
Mississauga Centre: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Mississauga Centre, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 45% vote share, against 44% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Hon. Natalia Kusendova-Bashta
Sits with PC
Current forecast
OLP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 85%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.9
- P(close race)
- 99%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMississauga Centre | 45.4% | 43.8% | 7.2% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +12.0 | 40.2% +3.6 | 20.3% −13.0 | 3.9% −1.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATALIA KUSENDOVA Elected | PC | 16,592 | 46.8 | — |
| SUMIRA MALIK | OLP | 14,561 | 41.1 | — |
| WASEEM AHMED | NDP | 2,310 | 6.5 | — |
| ROBERT CHAN | GP | 1,028 | 2.9 | — |
| AUDREY SIMPSON | OTH | 443 | 1.3 | — |
| GREG VEZINA | OTH | 334 | 0.9 | — |
| ZULFIQAR ALI | IND | 195 | 0.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029