Riding profile

Mississauga Centre

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Mississauga Centre: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PC

Toss-up

Probability
59%
Mean margin (pts)
1.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 44.7%
  • OLP 44.3%
  • NDP 6.6%
  • OTH 3.2%
  • GP 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin
  3. MiltonPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereMississauga Centre 44.7%44.3%6.6%3.2%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +3.3 32.3% +12.0 19.5% −12.9 4.0% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mississauga Centre, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 44% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Hon. Natalia Kusendova-Bashta

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
5.7 pts
Turnout
38.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.4 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
NATALIA KUSENDOVA Elected PC 16,592 46.8 —
SUMIRA MALIK OLP 14,561 41.1 —
WASEEM AHMED NDP 2,310 6.5 —
ROBERT CHAN GP 1,028 2.9 —
AUDREY SIMPSON OTH 443 1.3 —
GREG VEZINA OTH 334 0.9 —
ZULFIQAR ALI IND 195 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029