Riding profile

Don Valley East

Provincial riding — ON · Urban · on tor

The question

Don Valley East: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?

Current forecast

OLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OLP 61.4%
  • PC 28.1%
  • NDP 8.1%
  • OTH 1.2%
  • GP 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

OLP PC NDP OTH
HereDon Valley East 61.4%28.1%8.1%1.2%
Provincial averageOntario 32.3% +29.1 41.4% −13.3 19.5% −11.4 4.0% −2.7

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Don Valley East, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 61% vote share, against 28% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Adil Shamji

Sits with OLP

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
OLP
Margin
24.5 pts
Turnout
40.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.8 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
ADIL SHAMJI Elected OLP 15,465 56.6 —
ROGER GINGERICH PC 8,784 32.2 —
FRANK CHU NDP 2,094 7.7 —
JOSHUA MIERSCH GP 778 2.9 —
KRASIMIR PENKOV OTH 180 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029