Riding profile
Don Valley East
The question
Don Valley East: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Editorial read
Don Valley East, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 62% vote share, against 27% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Adil Shamji
Sits with OLP
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 36.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDon Valley East | 62.5% | 26.5% | 8.6% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +29.1 | 40.2% −13.7 | 20.3% −11.6 | 3.9% −1.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADIL SHAMJI Elected | OLP | 15,465 | 56.6 | — |
| ROGER GINGERICH | PC | 8,784 | 32.2 | — |
| FRANK CHU | NDP | 2,094 | 7.7 | — |
| JOSHUA MIERSCH | GP | 778 | 2.9 | — |
| KRASIMIR PENKOV | OTH | 180 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029