Riding profile
Scarborough—Rouge Park
The question
Scarborough—Rouge Park: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Scarborough—Rouge Park, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 47% vote share, against 43% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Hon. Vijay Thanigasalam
Sits with PC
Current forecast
OLP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 96%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.1
- P(close race)
- 88%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereScarborough—Rouge Park | 46.5% | 43.5% | 8.1% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +13.2 | 40.2% +3.2 | 20.3% −12.2 | 3.9% −2.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIJAY THANIGASALAM Elected | PC | 16,357 | 49.2 | — |
| MORRIS BECKFORD | OLP | 13,385 | 40.2 | — |
| HIBAH SIDAT | NDP | 2,360 | 7.1 | — |
| VICTORIA JEWT | GP | 727 | 2.2 | — |
| TIMOTHY JAMES | OTH | 326 | 1.0 | — |
| WAI KIAT TANG | OTH | 114 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029