Riding profile
Scarborough—Rouge Park
The question
Scarborough—Rouge Park: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
OLP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 50%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.5
- P(close race)
- 99%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereScarborough—Rouge Park | 45.1% | 45.0% | 7.5% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +3.6 | 32.3% +12.8 | 19.5% −12.0 | 4.0% −2.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Scarborough—Rouge Park, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 45% vote share, against 45% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Hon. Vijay Thanigasalam
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIJAY THANIGASALAM Elected | PC | 16,357 | 49.2 | — |
| MORRIS BECKFORD | OLP | 13,385 | 40.2 | — |
| HIBAH SIDAT | NDP | 2,360 | 7.1 | — |
| VICTORIA JEWT | GP | 727 | 2.2 | — |
| TIMOTHY JAMES | OTH | 326 | 1.0 | — |
| WAI KIAT TANG | OTH | 114 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029