Riding profile
Pickering—Uxbridge
The question
Pickering—Uxbridge: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Pickering—Uxbridge, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 44% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Hon. Peter Bethlenfalvy
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Toss-up
- Probability
- 78%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.6
- P(close race)
- 99%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePickering—Uxbridge | 45.0% | 43.8% | 8.1% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +4.8 | 33.4% +10.5 | 20.3% −12.2 | 3.9% −1.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PETER BETHLENFALVY Elected | PC | 21,975 | 48.1 | — |
| IBRAHIM DANIYAL | OLP | 18,072 | 39.5 | — |
| KHALID AHMED | NDP | 3,381 | 7.4 | — |
| MINI BATRA | GP | 1,300 | 2.8 | — |
| ADRIAN NOLAN | OTH | 411 | 0.9 | — |
| VICTORIA DEVENPORT | OTH | 384 | 0.8 | — |
| MANSOOR QURESHI | OTH | 127 | 0.3 | — |
| NETALIA DUBOISKY | OTH | 73 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029