Riding profile
Pickering—Uxbridge
The question
Pickering—Uxbridge: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PC
Toss-up
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.2
- P(close race)
- 87%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePickering—Uxbridge | 46.0% | 42.7% | 7.5% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +4.5 | 32.3% +10.5 | 19.5% −12.0 | 4.0% −1.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Pickering—Uxbridge, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 43% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Hon. Peter Bethlenfalvy
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PETER BETHLENFALVY Elected | PC | 21,975 | 48.1 | — |
| IBRAHIM DANIYAL | OLP | 18,072 | 39.5 | — |
| KHALID AHMED | NDP | 3,381 | 7.4 | — |
| MINI BATRA | GP | 1,300 | 2.8 | — |
| ADRIAN NOLAN | OTH | 411 | 0.9 | — |
| VICTORIA DEVENPORT | OTH | 384 | 0.8 | — |
| MANSOOR QURESHI | OTH | 127 | 0.3 | — |
| NETALIA DUBOISKY | OTH | 73 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029