Riding profile
Ajax
The question
Ajax: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Editorial read
Ajax, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 49% vote share, against 41% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Rob Cerjanec
Sits with OLP
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.1
- P(close race)
- 3%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAjax | 49.2% | 41.1% | 7.7% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +15.8 | 40.2% +0.9 | 20.3% −12.6 | 3.9% −2.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROBERT CERJANEC Elected | OLP | 18,499 | 45.0 | — |
| PATRICE BARNES | PC | 18,168 | 44.2 | — |
| ARTHUR AUGUSTINE | NDP | 2,884 | 7.0 | — |
| CORY FEFERMAN | GP | 866 | 2.1 | — |
| CHRIS REES | OTH | 413 | 1.0 | — |
| SARAH QURESHI | OTH | 312 | 0.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029