Riding profile

Ajax

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Ajax: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?

Current forecast

OLP

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.0
P(close race)
26%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OLP 48.1%
  • PC 42.1%
  • NDP 7.1%
  • OTH 2.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

OLP PC NDP OTH
HereAjax 48.1%42.1%7.1%2.2%
Provincial averageOntario 32.3% +15.8 41.4% +0.6 19.5% −12.4 4.0% −1.7

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Ajax, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 48% vote share, against 42% for the PC Party, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Rob Cerjanec

Sits with OLP

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
OLP
Margin
0.8 pts
Turnout
41.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.2 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
ROBERT CERJANEC Elected OLP 18,499 45.0 —
PATRICE BARNES PC 18,168 44.2 —
ARTHUR AUGUSTINE NDP 2,884 7.0 —
CORY FEFERMAN GP 866 2.1 —
CHRIS REES OTH 413 1.0 —
SARAH QURESHI OTH 312 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029