Riding profile

Whitby

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Whitby: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PC

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
88%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 46.0%
  • OLP 42.9%
  • NDP 8.1%
  • OTH 2.1%
  • GP 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereWhitby 46.0%42.9%8.1%2.1%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +4.6 32.3% +10.6 19.5% −11.5 4.0% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Whitby, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 43% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Lorne Coe

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
8.5 pts
Turnout
46.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.3 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
LORNE COE Elected PC 24,803 48.1 —
ROGER GORDON OLP 20,440 39.6 —
JAMIE NYE NDP 4,097 8.0 —
STEVEN TOMAN GP 1,376 2.7 —
RALPH BLANK OTH 844 1.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029