Riding profile

Whitby

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Whitby: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Whitby, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 44% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Lorne Coe

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Toss-up

Probability
76%
Mean margin (pts)
1.5
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 45.0%
  • OLP 43.9%
  • NDP 8.6%
  • GP 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP GP
HereWhitby 45.0%43.9%8.6%2.0%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +4.8 33.4% +10.5 20.3% −11.6 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
8.5 pts
Turnout
46.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.9 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
LORNE COE Elected PC 24,803 48.1
ROGER GORDON OLP 20,440 39.6
JAMIE NYE NDP 4,097 8.0
STEVEN TOMAN GP 1,376 2.7
RALPH BLANK OTH 844 1.6
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029