Riding profile
Oshawa
The question
Oshawa: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.1
- P(close race)
- 21%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOshawa | 45.6% | 39.5% | 12.3% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 19.5% +26.0 | 41.4% −2.0 | 32.3% −20.0 | 4.0% −1.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Oshawa, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 46% vote share, against 39% for the PC Party, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Jennifer K. French
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JENNIFER FRENCH Elected | NDP | 20,367 | 45.9 | — |
| JERRY J. OUELLETTE | PC | 18,442 | 41.5 | — |
| VIRESH BANSAL | OLP | 3,891 | 8.8 | — |
| NICHOLAS SIRGOOL | GP | 916 | 2.1 | — |
| JOE INGINO | OTH | 644 | 1.4 | — |
| RAHUL PADMINI SOUMIAN | IND | 142 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029