Riding profile
Oshawa
The question
Oshawa: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Oshawa, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 47% vote share, against 38% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jennifer K. French
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.1
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOshawa | 46.6% | 38.5% | 13.0% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +26.3 | 40.2% −1.8 | 33.4% −20.4 | 3.9% −2.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JENNIFER FRENCH Elected | NDP | 20,367 | 45.9 | — |
| JERRY J. OUELLETTE | PC | 18,442 | 41.5 | — |
| VIRESH BANSAL | OLP | 3,891 | 8.8 | — |
| NICHOLAS SIRGOOL | GP | 916 | 2.1 | — |
| JOE INGINO | OTH | 644 | 1.4 | — |
| RAHUL PADMINI SOUMIAN | IND | 142 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029