Riding profile
Durham
The question
Durham: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDurham | 48.2% | 32.2% | 14.9% | 3.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +6.8 | 32.3% | 19.5% −4.6 | 4.0% |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Durham, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 32% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Todd J. McCarthy
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TODD MCCARTHY Elected | PC | 26,967 | 50.5 | — |
| BRAD JAKOBSEN | OLP | 15,701 | 29.4 | — |
| CHRIS BORGIA | NDP | 7,635 | 14.3 | — |
| SANJIN ZECO | GP | 1,280 | 2.4 | — |
| JAMES LEVENTAKIS | OTH | 666 | 1.3 | — |
| ASIF KHAN | OTH | 635 | 1.2 | — |
| SHERI THURSTON | OTH | 409 | 0.8 | — |
| FAWAD KIYANI | IND | 130 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029