Riding profile

Markham—Stouffville

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Markham—Stouffville: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Markham—Stouffville, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 46% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Hon. Paul Calandra

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Toss-up

Probability
89%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
97%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 47.4%
  • OLP 45.5%
  • NDP 5.2%
  • GP 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP GP
HereMarkham—Stouffville 47.4%45.5%5.2%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +7.2 33.4% +12.2 20.3% −15.0 3.9% −2.3

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
9.2 pts
Turnout
43.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.2 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
PAUL CALANDRA Elected PC 22,757 50.6 —
KELLY DUNN OLP 18,624 41.4 —
GREGORY HINES NDP 2,051 4.6 —
MYLES O'BRIEN GP 1,018 2.3 —
BRENDAN SORENSON OTH 491 1.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029