Riding profile
Markham—Stouffville
The question
Markham—Stouffville: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PC
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.9
- P(close race)
- 76%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMarkham—Stouffville | 48.5% | 44.6% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +7.0 | 32.3% +12.4 | 19.5% −14.9 | 4.0% −2.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Markham—Stouffville, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 45% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Hon. Paul Calandra
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAUL CALANDRA Elected | PC | 22,757 | 50.6 | — |
| KELLY DUNN | OLP | 18,624 | 41.4 | — |
| GREGORY HINES | NDP | 2,051 | 4.6 | — |
| MYLES O'BRIEN | GP | 1,018 | 2.3 | — |
| BRENDAN SORENSON | OTH | 491 | 1.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029