Riding profile

Richmond Hill

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Richmond Hill: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 53.2%
  • OLP 37.5%
  • NDP 5.9%
  • OTH 2.2%
  • GP 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereRichmond Hill 53.2%37.5%5.9%2.2%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +11.8 32.3% +5.3 19.5% −13.7 4.0% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Richmond Hill, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 38% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Daisy Wai

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
21.2 pts
Turnout
35.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
DAISY WAI Elected PC 17,061 55.4 —
ROOZBEH FARHADI OLP 10,546 34.3 —
RAYMOND BHUSHAN NDP 1,771 5.8 —
ALISON LAM GP 883 2.9 —
ALLISON BRUNS OTH 519 1.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029