Riding profile
Richmond Hill
The question
Richmond Hill: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Richmond Hill, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 38% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Daisy Wai
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRichmond Hill | 52.4% | 38.5% | 6.4% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +12.1 | 33.4% +5.1 | 20.3% −13.8 | 3.9% −1.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAISY WAI Elected | PC | 17,061 | 55.4 | — |
| ROOZBEH FARHADI | OLP | 10,546 | 34.3 | — |
| RAYMOND BHUSHAN | NDP | 1,771 | 5.8 | — |
| ALISON LAM | GP | 883 | 2.9 | — |
| ALLISON BRUNS | OTH | 519 | 1.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029