Riding profile

Richmond Hill

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Richmond Hill: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Editorial read

Richmond Hill, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 38% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Daisy Wai

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 52.4%
  • OLP 38.5%
  • NDP 6.4%
  • GP 2.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP GP
HereRichmond Hill 52.4%38.5%6.4%2.3%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +12.1 33.4% +5.1 20.3% −13.8 3.9% −1.7

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
21.2 pts
Turnout
35.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.3 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
DAISY WAI Elected PC 17,061 55.4
ROOZBEH FARHADI OLP 10,546 34.3
RAYMOND BHUSHAN NDP 1,771 5.8
ALISON LAM GP 883 2.9
ALLISON BRUNS OTH 519 1.7
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029