Riding profile

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Editorial read

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 38% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Michael Parsa

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 54.1%
  • OLP 38.1%
  • NDP 6.3%
  • GP 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP GP
HereAurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill 54.1%38.1%6.3%1.1%
Provincial averageOntario 40.2% +13.8 33.4% +4.7 20.3% −14.0 3.9% −2.8

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
23.3 pts
Turnout
38.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.3 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
MICHAEL PARSA Elected PC 19,670 57.2 —
JASON CHERNIAK OLP 11,645 33.9 —
NAILA SAEED NDP 1,929 5.6 —
IKRAM KAHN GP 610 1.8 —
ROSARIA WISEMAN OTH 540 1.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029