Riding profile
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
The question
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | 54.9% | 37.1% | 5.7% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +13.5 | 32.3% +4.8 | 19.5% −13.8 | 4.0% −1.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 37% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Michael Parsa
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICHAEL PARSA Elected | PC | 19,670 | 57.2 | — |
| JASON CHERNIAK | OLP | 11,645 | 33.9 | — |
| NAILA SAEED | NDP | 1,929 | 5.6 | — |
| IKRAM KAHN | GP | 610 | 1.8 | — |
| ROSARIA WISEMAN | OTH | 540 | 1.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029