Riding profile
Newmarket—Aurora
The question
Newmarket—Aurora: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Newmarket—Aurora, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 46% vote share, against 45% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dawn Gallagher Murphy
Sits with PC
Current forecast
OLP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 81%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNewmarket—Aurora | 45.9% | 44.5% | 7.0% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +12.5 | 40.2% +4.3 | 20.3% −13.2 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAWN GALLAGHER MURPHY Elected | PC | 20,260 | 47.6 | — |
| CHRIS BALLARD | OLP | 17,723 | 41.6 | — |
| DENIS HENG | NDP | 2,709 | 6.4 | — |
| DAVID JAKUBIEC | GP | 1,088 | 2.5 | — |
| SHIRIN KHASBAKHI | OTH | 536 | 1.3 | — |
| YURI DUBOISKY | OTH | 286 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029