Riding profile

Newmarket—Aurora

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Newmarket—Aurora: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PC

Toss-up

Probability
65%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 45.5%
  • OLP 44.8%
  • NDP 6.5%
  • OTH 2.4%
  • GP 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. MiltonPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereNewmarket—Aurora 45.5%44.8%6.5%2.4%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +4.0 32.3% +12.5 19.5% −13.1 4.0% −1.6

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Newmarket—Aurora, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 45% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Dawn Gallagher Murphy

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
6.0 pts
Turnout
43.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.6 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
DAWN GALLAGHER MURPHY Elected PC 20,260 47.6 —
CHRIS BALLARD OLP 17,723 41.6 —
DENIS HENG NDP 2,709 6.4 —
DAVID JAKUBIEC GP 1,088 2.5 —
SHIRIN KHASBAKHI OTH 536 1.3 —
YURI DUBOISKY OTH 286 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029