Riding profile
Thornhill
The question
Thornhill: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Thornhill, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 59% vote share, against 33% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Laura Smith
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 26.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereThornhill | 59.3% | 32.5% | 5.4% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +19.1 | 33.4% −0.9 | 20.3% −14.9 | 3.9% −1.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAURA SMITH Elected | PC | 22,829 | 64.0 | — |
| BEN DOOLEY | OLP | 10,105 | 28.3 | — |
| FAIZ QURESHI | NDP | 1,282 | 3.6 | — |
| MARCELO LEVY | GP | 768 | 2.1 | — |
| LUCA MELE | OTH | 523 | 1.5 | — |
| ALEKSEI POLYAKOV | OTH | 170 | 0.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029