Riding profile

Thornhill

Provincial riding — ON · Rural · on provincewide

The question

Thornhill: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 61.6%
  • OLP 31.1%
  • NDP 4.3%
  • OTH 2.4%
  • GP 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereThornhill 61.6%31.1%4.3%2.4%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +20.2 32.3% −1.1 19.5% −15.3 4.0% −1.5

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Thornhill, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 31% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Laura Smith

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
35.7 pts
Turnout
39.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.2 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
LAURA SMITH Elected PC 22,829 64.0 —
BEN DOOLEY OLP 10,105 28.3 —
FAIZ QURESHI NDP 1,282 3.6 —
MARCELO LEVY GP 768 2.1 —
LUCA MELE OTH 523 1.5 —
ALEKSEI POLYAKOV OTH 170 0.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029