Riding profile
Humber River—Black Creek
The question
Humber River—Black Creek: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Humber River—Black Creek, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 36% vote share, against 34% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Tom Rakocevic
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.2
- P(close race)
- 98%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHumber River—Black Creek | 36.0% | 33.8% | 28.9% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +15.7 | 33.4% +0.4 | 40.2% −11.3 | 3.9% −2.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM RAKOCEVIC Elected | NDP | 8,788 | 35.3 | — |
| PAUL NGUYEN | PC | 8,595 | 34.5 | — |
| LIBAN HASSAN | OLP | 6,811 | 27.4 | — |
| ALEXANDER QANBERY | GP | 402 | 1.6 | — |
| JEANNE MCGUIRE | OTH | 280 | 1.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029