Riding profile

Etobicoke Centre

Provincial riding — ON · Urban · on tor

The question

Etobicoke Centre: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

OLP

Toss-up

Probability
92%
Mean margin (pts)
2.8
P(close race)
90%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OLP 46.6%
  • PC 44.0%
  • NDP 5.1%
  • OTH 3.7%
  • GP 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

OLP PC NDP OTH
HereEtobicoke Centre 46.6%44.0%5.1%3.7%
Provincial averageOntario 32.3% +14.4 41.4% +2.6 19.5% −14.4 4.0% −0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Etobicoke Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 47% vote share, against 44% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Hon. Kinga Surma

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
6.3 pts
Turnout
48.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.5 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
KINGA SURMA Elected PC 22,261 48.1 —
JOHN CAMPBELL OLP 19,358 41.8 —
GIULIA VOLPE NDP 2,151 4.7 —
BRIAN MORRIS GP 1,000 2.2 —
MARIO BILUSIC OTH 658 1.4 —
PAUL FROMM OTH 479 1.0 —
RICHARD M. KIERNICKI OTH 192 0.4 —
SIGNE MIRANDA OTH 180 0.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029