Riding profile
Etobicoke Centre
The question
Etobicoke Centre: will PC lose this seat to OLP?
Editorial read
Etobicoke Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 48% vote share, against 43% for the PC Party, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Hon. Kinga Surma
Sits with PC
Current forecast
OLP
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.7
- P(close race)
- 32%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEtobicoke Centre | 48.3% | 42.6% | 5.7% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +15.0 | 40.2% +2.3 | 20.3% −14.5 | 2.2% −0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KINGA SURMA Elected | PC | 22,261 | 48.1 | — |
| JOHN CAMPBELL | OLP | 19,358 | 41.8 | — |
| GIULIA VOLPE | NDP | 2,151 | 4.7 | — |
| BRIAN MORRIS | GP | 1,000 | 2.2 | — |
| MARIO BILUSIC | OTH | 658 | 1.4 | — |
| PAUL FROMM | OTH | 479 | 1.0 | — |
| RICHARD M. KIERNICKI | OTH | 192 | 0.4 | — |
| SIGNE MIRANDA | OTH | 180 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029