Riding profile
Parkdale—High Park
The question
Parkdale—High Park: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Parkdale—High Park, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 46% vote share, against 37% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Alexa Gilmour
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereParkdale—High Park | 46.0% | 37.3% | 12.5% | 3.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +25.8 | 33.4% +3.9 | 40.2% −27.8 | 3.9% −0.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALEXA GILMOUR Elected | NDP | 20,508 | 45.4 | — |
| NADIA GUERRERA | OLP | 13,941 | 30.8 | — |
| JUSTINE TEPLYCKY | PC | 8,058 | 17.8 | — |
| ANNA GORKA | GP | 1,968 | 4.3 | — |
| GEOFFREY CORFIELD | OTH | 462 | 1.0 | — |
| RIMMY RIARH | OTH | 283 | 0.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029