Riding profile

Parkdale—High Park

Provincial riding — ON · Urban · on tor

The question

Parkdale—High Park: a safe seat for the NDP?

Editorial read

Parkdale—High Park, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 46% vote share, against 37% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Alexa Gilmour

Sits with NDP

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 46.0%
  • OLP 37.3%
  • PC 12.5%
  • GP 3.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP OLP PC GP
HereParkdale—High Park 46.0%37.3%12.5%3.8%
Provincial averageOntario 20.3% +25.8 33.4% +3.9 40.2% −27.8 3.9% −0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
14.5 pts
Turnout
51.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.8 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
ALEXA GILMOUR Elected NDP 20,508 45.4
NADIA GUERRERA OLP 13,941 30.8
JUSTINE TEPLYCKY PC 8,058 17.8
ANNA GORKA GP 1,968 4.3
GEOFFREY CORFIELD OTH 462 1.0
RIMMY RIARH OTH 283 0.6
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029