Riding profile
Toronto—St. Paul's
The question
Toronto—St. Paul's: a safe seat for the Ontario Liberals?
Editorial read
Toronto—St. Paul's, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Ontario Liberals in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 47% vote share, against 32% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Stephanie Smyth
Sits with OLP
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | NDP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereToronto—St. Paul's | 46.7% | 32.1% | 19.7% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +13.3 | 20.3% +11.9 | 40.2% −20.6 | 3.9% −2.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEPHANIE SMYTH Elected | OLP | 17,451 | 40.9 | — |
| JILL ANDREW | NDP | 13,553 | 31.7 | — |
| RILEY BRAUNSTEIN | PC | 10,822 | 25.3 | — |
| CHLOE TANGPONGPRUSH | GP | 873 | 2.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029