Riding profile
Davenport
The question
Davenport: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 31.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDavenport | 57.4% | 25.5% | 13.9% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 19.5% +37.8 | 32.3% −6.8 | 41.4% −27.5 | 4.0% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Davenport, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 57% vote share, against 25% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Marit Stiles
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARIT STILES Elected | NDP | 22,143 | 57.1 | — |
| PAULO PEREIRA | OLP | 7,983 | 20.6 | — |
| NICK PAVLOV | PC | 6,937 | 17.9 | — |
| RANDI RAMDEEN | GP | 1,184 | 3.0 | — |
| DAVE MCKEE | OTH | 556 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029