Riding profile
Davenport
The question
Davenport: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Davenport, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 58% vote share, against 27% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Marit Stiles
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 30.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDavenport | 57.6% | 27.1% | 12.5% | 2.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +37.3 | 33.4% −6.3 | 40.2% −27.7 | 3.9% −1.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARIT STILES Elected | NDP | 22,143 | 57.1 | — |
| PAULO PEREIRA | OLP | 7,983 | 20.6 | — |
| NICK PAVLOV | PC | 6,937 | 17.9 | — |
| RANDI RAMDEEN | GP | 1,184 | 3.0 | — |
| DAVE MCKEE | OTH | 556 | 1.4 | — |
Around the region
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029