Riding profile
Spadina—Fort York
The question
Spadina—Fort York: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Spadina—Fort York, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 45% vote share, against 38% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Chris Glover
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.6
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSpadina—Fort York | 45.4% | 37.8% | 14.6% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +25.1 | 33.4% +4.4 | 40.2% −25.6 | 3.9% −1.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHRIS GLOVER Elected | NDP | 20,441 | 45.0 | — |
| APRIL ENGELBERG | OLP | 14,331 | 31.6 | — |
| OMAR FARHAT | PC | 9,139 | 20.1 | — |
| PATRICK MACKLEM | GP | 1,220 | 2.7 | — |
| RON SHAW | OTH | 293 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029