Riding profile
Spadina—Fort York
The question
Spadina—Fort York: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.9
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSpadina—Fort York | 45.3% | 36.4% | 16.1% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 19.5% +25.8 | 32.3% +4.1 | 41.4% −25.3 | 4.0% −2.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Spadina—Fort York, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 45% vote share, against 36% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Chris Glover
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHRIS GLOVER Elected | NDP | 20,441 | 45.0 | — |
| APRIL ENGELBERG | OLP | 14,331 | 31.6 | — |
| OMAR FARHAT | PC | 9,139 | 20.1 | — |
| PATRICK MACKLEM | GP | 1,220 | 2.7 | — |
| RON SHAW | OTH | 293 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029