Riding profile
University—Rosedale
The question
University—Rosedale: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
University—Rosedale, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 46% vote share, against 37% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jessica Bell
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereUniversity—Rosedale | 45.9% | 37.0% | 14.4% | 2.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +25.7 | 33.4% +3.6 | 40.2% −25.8 | 3.9% −1.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JESSICA BELL Elected | NDP | 17,912 | 45.5 | — |
| PAM JEFFERY | OLP | 12,098 | 30.7 | — |
| SYDNEY POTHAKOS | PC | 7,829 | 19.9 | — |
| IGNACIO MONGRELL | GP | 1,227 | 3.1 | — |
| DYLAN HARRIS | OTH | 299 | 0.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029