Riding profile

Eglinton—Lawrence

Provincial riding — ON · Urban · on tor

The question

Eglinton—Lawrence: will PC lose this seat to OLP?

Current forecast

OLP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.4
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OLP 52.6%
  • PC 44.2%
  • GP 1.7%
  • OTH 0.7%
  • NDP 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

OLP PC GP OTH
HereEglinton—Lawrence 52.6%44.2%1.7%0.7%
Provincial averageOntario 32.3% +20.4 41.4% +2.8 2.8% −1.1 4.0% −3.2

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Eglinton—Lawrence, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 53% vote share, against 44% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Michelle Cooper

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
0.4 pts
Turnout
46.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.0 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
MICHELLE COOPER Elected PC 19,556 48.5 —
VINCE GASPARRO OLP 19,389 48.1 —
LEAH TYSOE GP 1,390 3.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029