Riding profile
Eglinton—Lawrence
The question
Eglinton—Lawrence: will PC lose this seat to OLP?
Editorial read
Eglinton—Lawrence, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 54% vote share, against 42% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Michelle Cooper
Sits with PC
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | GP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEglinton—Lawrence | 53.7% | 42.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +20.4 | 40.2% +2.1 | 3.9% −1.1 | 20.3% −19.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICHELLE COOPER Elected | PC | 19,556 | 48.5 | — |
| VINCE GASPARRO | OLP | 19,389 | 48.1 | — |
| LEAH TYSOE | GP | 1,390 | 3.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029