Riding profile
Etobicoke North
The question
Etobicoke North: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Etobicoke North, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 31-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 35% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Doug Ford
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEtobicoke North | 53.8% | 34.9% | 9.0% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +13.5 | 33.4% +1.6 | 20.3% −11.3 | 3.9% −2.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOUG FORD Elected | PC | 15,426 | 59.4 | — |
| JULIE LUTETE | OLP | 7,369 | 28.4 | — |
| BRYAN BLAIR | NDP | 2,067 | 8.0 | — |
| CHELSEY EDWARDS | GP | 526 | 2.0 | — |
| ANDY D'ANDREA | OTH | 405 | 1.6 | — |
| JOHN GARDNER | OTH | 177 | 0.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029