Riding profile

King—Vaughan

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

King—Vaughan: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 61.9%
  • OLP 31.3%
  • NDP 4.0%
  • OTH 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereKing—Vaughan 61.9%31.3%4.0%2.3%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +20.4 32.3% −0.9 19.5% −15.5 4.0% −1.6

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

King—Vaughan, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 31% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon. Stephen Lecce

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
36.2 pts
Turnout
39.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.6 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
STEPHEN LECCE Elected PC 28,527 64.2 —
GILLIAN VIVONA OLP 12,453 28.0 —
RICK MORELLI NDP 1,714 3.9 —
ANN RANEY GP 934 2.1 —
CHRISTOPHER BRESSI OTH 569 1.3 —
MARIA MORGIS OTH 256 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029