Riding profile
Markham—Thornhill
The question
Markham—Thornhill: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Markham—Thornhill, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 43% for the Ontario Liberals, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Logan Kanapathi
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.5
- P(close race)
- 16%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMarkham—Thornhill | 49.9% | 43.4% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +9.6 | 33.4% +10.0 | 20.3% −15.2 | 3.9% −2.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOGAN KANAPATHI Elected | PC | 14,287 | 53.6 | — |
| NIRMALA ARMSTRONG | OLP | 10,580 | 39.7 | — |
| PAUL SAHBAZ | NDP | 1,176 | 4.4 | — |
| SHANE O'BRIEN | GP | 623 | 2.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029