Riding profile

Markham—Thornhill

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Markham—Thornhill: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.5
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 51.3%
  • OLP 42.8%
  • NDP 4.5%
  • OTH 0.7%
  • GP 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereMarkham—Thornhill 51.3%42.8%4.5%0.7%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +9.8 32.3% +10.5 19.5% −15.0 4.0% −3.2

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Markham—Thornhill, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 43% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Logan Kanapathi

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
13.9 pts
Turnout
37.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.4 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
LOGAN KANAPATHI Elected PC 14,287 53.6 —
NIRMALA ARMSTRONG OLP 10,580 39.7 —
PAUL SAHBAZ NDP 1,176 4.4 —
SHANE O'BRIEN GP 623 2.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029