Riding profile

Burlington

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Burlington: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

OLP

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.2
P(close race)
45%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OLP 46.3%
  • PC 41.1%
  • NDP 8.1%
  • OTH 2.8%
  • GP 1.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

OLP PC NDP OTH
HereBurlington 46.3%41.1%8.1%2.8%
Provincial averageOntario 32.3% +14.0 41.4% −0.3 19.5% −11.4 4.0% −1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Burlington, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 46% vote share, against 41% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Natalie Pierre

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
0.1 pts
Turnout
53.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.1 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
NATALIE PIERRE Elected PC 24,118 43.1 —
ANDREA GREBENC OLP 24,079 43.1 —
MEGAN BEAUCHEMIN NDP 4,487 8.0 —
KYLE HUTTON GP 1,913 3.4 —
JAMES CHILLI CHILLINGWORTH OTH 727 1.3 —
DAVID CROMBIE OTH 582 1.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029