Riding profile
Burlington
The question
Burlington: will PC lose this seat to OLP?
Editorial read
Burlington, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 47% vote share, against 40% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Natalie Pierre
Sits with PC
Current forecast
OLP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.3
- P(close race)
- 8%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBurlington | 47.4% | 40.1% | 8.7% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +14.0 | 40.2% −0.1 | 20.3% −11.5 | 3.9% −1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATALIE PIERRE Elected | PC | 24,118 | 43.1 | — |
| ANDREA GREBENC | OLP | 24,079 | 43.1 | — |
| MEGAN BEAUCHEMIN | NDP | 4,487 | 8.0 | — |
| KYLE HUTTON | GP | 1,913 | 3.4 | — |
| JAMES CHILLI CHILLINGWORTH | OTH | 727 | 1.3 | — |
| DAVID CROMBIE | OTH | 582 | 1.0 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029