Riding profile
Hamilton Mountain
The question
Hamilton Mountain: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Hamilton Mountain, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 35% vote share, against 33% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Monica Ciriello
Sits with PC
Current forecast
OLP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 91%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.3
- P(close race)
- 98%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHamilton Mountain | 35.2% | 33.1% | 26.8% | 3.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 33.4% +1.9 | 40.2% −7.1 | 20.3% +6.5 | 3.9% −0.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONICA CIRIELLO Elected | PC | 13,948 | 36.2 | — |
| DAWN DANKO | OLP | 11,933 | 30.9 | — |
| KOJO DAMPTEY | NDP | 10,037 | 26.0 | — |
| JOSHUA CZERNIGA | GP | 1,544 | 4.0 | — |
| LAYLA MARIE-ANGELA PROTOPAPA | OTH | 392 | 1.0 | — |
| DAN PRESTON | OTH | 278 | 0.7 | — |
| EJAZ BUTT | IND | 267 | 0.7 | — |
| BING WONG | OTH | 178 | 0.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029