Riding profile

Hamilton Mountain

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Hamilton Mountain: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

OLP

Toss-up

Probability
53%
Mean margin (pts)
1.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OLP 34.2%
  • PC 34.2%
  • NDP 25.9%
  • OTH 3.3%
  • GP 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin
  3. MiltonPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

OLP PC NDP OTH
HereHamilton Mountain 34.2%34.2%25.9%3.3%
Provincial averageOntario 32.3% +2.0 41.4% −7.3 19.5% +6.4 4.0% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Hamilton Mountain, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 34% vote share, against 34% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Monica Ciriello

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
5.2 pts
Turnout
46.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.9 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
MONICA CIRIELLO Elected PC 13,948 36.2 —
DAWN DANKO OLP 11,933 30.9 —
KOJO DAMPTEY NDP 10,037 26.0 —
JOSHUA CZERNIGA GP 1,544 4.0 —
LAYLA MARIE-ANGELA PROTOPAPA OTH 392 1.0 —
DAN PRESTON OTH 278 0.7 —
EJAZ BUTT IND 267 0.7 —
BING WONG OTH 178 0.5 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029