Riding profile
Hamilton Centre
The question
Hamilton Centre: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Hamilton Centre, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 39% vote share, against 26% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Robin Lennox
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | OLP | PC | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHamilton Centre | 39.2% | 25.6% | 15.9% | 15.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +18.9 | 33.4% −7.8 | 40.2% −24.4 | 2.2% +12.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROBIN LENNOX Elected | NDP | 12,839 | 38.4 | — |
| EILEEN WALKER | OLP | 7,132 | 21.3 | — |
| SARAH BOKHARI | PC | 6,331 | 18.9 | — |
| SARAH JAMA | IND | 4,977 | 14.9 | — |
| LUCIA IANNANTUONO | GP | 1,642 | 4.9 | — |
| MITCH NOVOSAD | OTH | 441 | 1.3 | — |
| NATHALIE XIAN YI YAN | IND | 107 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029