Hamilton Centre
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | OLP | OTH | PC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton Centre | 39.4% | 23.1% | 17.2% | 16.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.8%+18.5 | 30.7%−7.6 | 4.3%+12.8 | 40.6%−24.2 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Robin Lennox · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 17.1 points, with 42.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 16.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robin Lennox Elected | NDP | 12,839 | 38.4 |
| Eileen Walker | OLP | 7,132 | 21.3 |
| Sarah Bokhari | PC | 6,331 | 18.9 |
| Sarah Jama | IND | 4,977 | 14.9 |
| Lucia Iannantuono | GP | 1,642 | 4.9 |
| Mitch Novosad | OTH | 441 | 1.3 |
| Nathalie Xian Yi Yan | IND | 107 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hamilton Mountain PC, toss-up
- Burlington OLP, toss-up
- Flamborough—Glanbrook PC, safe seat
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP, safe seat
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek PC, competitive
- Oakville North—Burlington PC, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated