Riding profile
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
The question
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 39% vote share, against 36% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Hon. Neil Lumsden
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.2
- P(close race)
- 88%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHamilton East—Stoney Creek | 39.1% | 35.9% | 18.3% | 4.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% −1.1 | 33.4% +2.6 | 20.3% −1.9 | 3.9% +0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEIL LUMSDEN Elected | PC | 16,401 | 42.1 | — |
| HEINO DOESSING | OLP | 12,323 | 31.6 | — |
| ZAIGHAM BUTT | NDP | 6,862 | 17.6 | — |
| PASCALE MARCHAND | GP | 2,049 | 5.3 | — |
| HEATHER CURNEW | OTH | 595 | 1.5 | — |
| WIESLAWA DERLATKA | OTH | 530 | 1.4 | — |
| DREW GARVIE | OTH | 223 | 0.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029