Riding profile
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
The question
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
PC
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.1
- P(close race)
- 48%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHamilton East—Stoney Creek | 40.0% | 34.9% | 17.6% | 3.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% −1.4 | 32.3% +2.7 | 19.5% −1.9 | 4.0% |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 40% vote share, against 35% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Hon. Neil Lumsden
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEIL LUMSDEN Elected | PC | 16,401 | 42.1 | — |
| HEINO DOESSING | OLP | 12,323 | 31.6 | — |
| ZAIGHAM BUTT | NDP | 6,862 | 17.6 | — |
| PASCALE MARCHAND | GP | 2,049 | 5.3 | — |
| HEATHER CURNEW | OTH | 595 | 1.5 | — |
| WIESLAWA DERLATKA | OTH | 530 | 1.4 | — |
| DREW GARVIE | OTH | 223 | 0.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029