Riding profile
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
The question
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.5
- P(close race)
- 4%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | 38.7% | 31.1% | 26.2% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 19.5% +19.1 | 41.4% −10.3 | 32.3% −6.1 | 4.0% −1.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 39% vote share, against 31% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sandy Shaw
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANDY SHAW Elected | NDP | 19,684 | 38.9 | — |
| JOHN DEMIK | PC | 16,766 | 33.1 | — |
| JULIA BROWN | OLP | 11,543 | 22.8 | — |
| GUY BISSON | GP | 1,747 | 3.5 | — |
| LEE WEISS VASSOR | OTH | 587 | 1.2 | — |
| SPENCER ROCCHI | OTH | 229 | 0.5 | — |
| NORI SMITH | OTH | 81 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029