Riding profile
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
The question
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 40% vote share, against 30% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sandy Shaw
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | 39.6% | 30.0% | 27.0% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +19.3 | 40.2% −10.2 | 33.4% −6.3 | 3.9% −1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANDY SHAW Elected | NDP | 19,684 | 38.9 | — |
| JOHN DEMIK | PC | 16,766 | 33.1 | — |
| JULIA BROWN | OLP | 11,543 | 22.8 | — |
| GUY BISSON | GP | 1,747 | 3.5 | — |
| LEE WEISS VASSOR | OTH | 587 | 1.2 | — |
| SPENCER ROCCHI | OTH | 229 | 0.5 | — |
| NORI SMITH | OTH | 81 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029