Riding profile

Milton

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Milton: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Milton, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Ontario Liberals ahead at 46% vote share, against 44% for the PC Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Hon. Zee Hamid

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Current forecast

OLP

Toss-up

Probability
81%
Mean margin (pts)
1.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • OLP 45.8%
  • PC 44.5%
  • NDP 6.4%
  • GP 2.0%
  • OTH 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

OLP PC NDP GP
HereMilton 45.8%44.5%6.4%2.0%
Provincial averageOntario 33.4% +12.4 40.2% +4.2 20.3% −13.9 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · ON 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
6.0 pts
Turnout
42.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.3 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
ZEE HAMID Elected PC 20,091 47.4
KRISTINA TESSER DERKSEN OLP 17,551 41.4
KATHERINE-ANNE CIRLINCIONE NDP 2,403 5.7
SUSAN DOYLE GP 1,130 2.7
JOHN SPINA OTH 866 2.0
MOHSIN RIZVI OTH 316 0.8
Last model run
Cycle
on_2029