Riding profile

Milton

Provincial riding — ON · Suburban · on 905

The question

Milton: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

PC

Toss-up

Probability
65%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 45.3%
  • OLP 44.6%
  • NDP 5.8%
  • OTH 3.2%
  • GP 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereMilton 45.3%44.6%5.8%3.2%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +3.9 32.3% +12.4 19.5% −13.8 4.0% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Milton, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 45% for the Ontario Liberals, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Hon. Zee Hamid

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
6.0 pts
Turnout
42.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.6 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
ZEE HAMID Elected PC 20,091 47.4 —
KRISTINA TESSER DERKSEN OLP 17,551 41.4 —
KATHERINE-ANNE CIRLINCIONE NDP 2,403 5.7 —
SUSAN DOYLE GP 1,130 2.7 —
JOHN SPINA OTH 866 2.0 —
MOHSIN RIZVI OTH 316 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029