Riding profile
Niagara Centre
The question
Niagara Centre: a safe seat for the NDP?
Editorial read
Niagara Centre, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 44% vote share, against 36% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jeff Burch
Sits with NDP
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.9
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNiagara Centre | 43.8% | 35.9% | 16.5% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3% +23.5 | 40.2% −4.3 | 33.4% −16.9 | 3.9% −1.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JEFF BURCH Elected | NDP | 20,408 | 42.2 | — |
| BILL STEELE | PC | 18,073 | 37.4 | — |
| DAMIEN O'BRIEN | OLP | 7,143 | 14.8 | — |
| NATASHIA BERGEN | GP | 1,261 | 2.6 | — |
| JIMMY JACKSON | OTH | 857 | 1.8 | — |
| DARRYL WEINBERG | OTH | 513 | 1.1 | — |
| ANGELA BROWNE | OTH | 130 | 0.3 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029