Riding profile

Niagara Centre

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on sw

The question

Niagara Centre: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.7
P(close race)
30%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 42.7%
  • PC 37.0%
  • OLP 15.7%
  • OTH 3.5%
  • GP 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP PC OLP OTH
HereNiagara Centre 42.7%37.0%15.7%3.5%
Provincial averageOntario 19.5% +23.2 41.4% −4.4 32.3% −16.6 4.0% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Niagara Centre, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 43% vote share, against 37% for the PC Party, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Jeff Burch

Sits with NDP

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
NDP
Margin
4.8 pts
Turnout
48.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.9 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
JEFF BURCH Elected NDP 20,408 42.2 —
BILL STEELE PC 18,073 37.4 —
DAMIEN O'BRIEN OLP 7,143 14.8 —
NATASHIA BERGEN GP 1,261 2.6 —
JIMMY JACKSON OTH 857 1.8 —
DARRYL WEINBERG OTH 513 1.1 —
ANGELA BROWNE OTH 130 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029