Riding profile
St. Catharines
The question
St. Catharines: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.8
- P(close race)
- 2%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSt. Catharines | 42.6% | 34.8% | 18.2% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 19.5% +23.1 | 41.4% −6.6 | 32.3% −14.1 | 4.0% −0.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
St. Catharines, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 43% vote share, against 35% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jennifer (Jennie) Stevens
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JENNIE STEVENS Elected | NDP | 19,688 | 42.1 | — |
| SAL SORRENTO | PC | 16,422 | 35.1 | — |
| ROBIN MCPHERSON | OLP | 8,092 | 17.3 | — |
| STEPHEN VINCELETTE-SMITH | GP | 1,033 | 2.2 | — |
| ROB ATALICK | OTH | 807 | 1.7 | — |
| NATALIA BENOIT | OTH | 347 | 0.7 | — |
| LIZ LEEUWENBURG | OTH | 300 | 0.6 | — |
| J. JUSTIN O'DONNELL | OTH | 56 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029