Riding profile
Niagara Falls
The question
Niagara Falls: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNiagara Falls | 55.2% | 34.1% | 7.3% | 3.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 19.5% +35.7 | 41.4% −7.3 | 32.3% −25.0 | 4.0% −0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Niagara Falls, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 55% vote share, against 34% for the PC Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Wayne Gates
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAYNE J. GATES Elected | NDP | 29,549 | 55.0 | — |
| RUTH-ANN NIEUWESTEEG | PC | 18,569 | 34.5 | — |
| SHAFOLI KAPUR | OLP | 3,398 | 6.3 | — |
| GARY DUMELIE | OTH | 870 | 1.6 | — |
| CELIA TAYLOR | GP | 837 | 1.6 | — |
| ANDREW SOIFERT | OTH | 285 | 0.5 | — |
| JOEDY BURDETT | IND | 263 | 0.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029