Riding profile
Niagara West
The question
Niagara West: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Niagara West, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 50% vote share, against 27% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Hon. Sam Oosterhoff
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNiagara West | 49.8% | 26.5% | 17.9% | 3.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +9.5 | 33.4% −6.8 | 20.3% −2.4 | 3.9% −0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAM OOSTERHOFF Elected | PC | 22,916 | 51.1 | — |
| SHAUNA BOYLE | OLP | 11,091 | 24.8 | — |
| DAVE AUGUSTYN | NDP | 7,312 | 16.3 | — |
| MARK HARRISON | GP | 1,794 | 4.0 | — |
| AARON ALBANO | OTH | 676 | 1.5 | — |
| AARON ALLISON | OTH | 629 | 1.4 | — |
| STEFANOS KARATOPIS | OTH | 326 | 0.7 | — |
| JIM TORMA | OTH | 73 | 0.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029