Riding profile

Cambridge

Provincial riding — ON · Mixed · on sw

The question

Cambridge: a safe seat for the PC Party?

Current forecast

PC

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.2
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • PC 43.2%
  • OLP 35.1%
  • NDP 12.4%
  • OTH 5.1%
  • GP 4.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Hamilton MountainOLP53 %1.3 pt margin
  2. Mississauga CentrePC59 %1.3 pt margin
  3. Newmarket—AuroraPC65 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

PC OLP NDP OTH
HereCambridge 43.2%35.1%12.4%5.1%
Provincial averageOntario 41.4% +1.8 32.3% +2.8 19.5% −7.2 4.0% +1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Cambridge, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 35% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Brian Riddell

Sits with PC

Parliament
44th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
PC
Margin
9.3 pts
Turnout
45.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.1 pts

Detailed result · ON 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
BRIAN RIDDELL Elected PC 19,210 43.7 —
ROB DEUTSCHMANN OLP 15,131 34.4 —
MARJORIE KNIGHT NDP 5,074 11.5 —
CARLA JOHNSON GP 2,519 5.7 —
BELINDA KARAHALIOS OTH 2,067 4.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
on_2029