Riding profile
Kitchener South—Hespeler
The question
Kitchener South—Hespeler: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKitchener South—Hespeler | 45.0% | 26.5% | 18.7% | 7.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.4% +3.6 | 32.3% −5.8 | 19.5% −0.9 | 2.8% +4.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Kitchener South—Hespeler, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 27% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jess Dixon
Sits with PC
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JESS DIXON Elected | PC | 17,363 | 45.4 | — |
| ISMAIL MOHAMED | OLP | 9,830 | 25.7 | — |
| JEFF DONKERSGOED | NDP | 6,841 | 17.9 | — |
| JESSICA RILEY | GP | 3,345 | 8.8 | — |
| JOHN SOULE | OTH | 846 | 2.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029