Riding profile
Kitchener South—Hespeler
The question
Kitchener South—Hespeler: a safe seat for the PC Party?
Editorial read
Kitchener South—Hespeler, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the PC Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the PC Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 27% for the Ontario Liberals, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jess Dixon
Sits with PC
Current forecast
PC
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKitchener South—Hespeler | 44.0% | 27.5% | 19.4% | 8.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 40.2% +3.7 | 33.4% −5.9 | 20.3% −0.8 | 3.9% +4.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 124 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · ON 2025
Detailed result · ON 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JESS DIXON Elected | PC | 17,363 | 45.4 | — |
| ISMAIL MOHAMED | OLP | 9,830 | 25.7 | — |
| JEFF DONKERSGOED | NDP | 6,841 | 17.9 | — |
| JESSICA RILEY | GP | 3,345 | 8.8 | — |
| JOHN SOULE | OTH | 846 | 2.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
on_2029